New Jersey Opioid Death Analysis

I have done an analysis on the Opioid Death Toll in New Jersey from the years 1999 – 2016, although the 2016 data was only half complete and only had 6 months worth of data. I took the mean of the estimates given in the data for the total deaths as well as heroin and fentanyl related deaths.

NJ_Deaths

* Source of Data: Data.World

From this graph we can see that opioid death’s weren’t categorized by substance until 2004 when heroin deaths starting to be counted. I don’t believe that dip in total deaths in 2004 to be relevant, I think the count just got more accurate with the inclusion of specific heroin deaths being taken into account. Secondly, we can see that opioid death was decreasing until 2008 and heroin related deaths were decreasing until about 2010 when fentanyl was introduced. The giant increase in opioid deaths is due to fentanyl being much stronger and deadlier than heroine. In just about 5 years fentanyl related deaths has almost matched heroin related deaths.

2017 Heroin death forecast: 993 deaths

2017 Fentanyl death forecast: 912 deaths

This makes sense because fentanyl is cheaper and more powerful then heroin so intuitively more opioid addicts will switch from heroin to Fentanyl resulting in more fentanyl overdoses.

** RStudio

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s